Memory market: What awaits us in 2024?
Entering the fourth quarter of 2023, the memory market is witnessing extensive price growth DRAM i NAND Flash memory. This increase is associated with the gradual impact of company production cuts and sustained strong demand in certain market segments, and is expected to last during the first quarter of next year.
Analyzes show estimated price growth Mobile DRAM of 13-18% in the fourth quarter, while prices for eMMC and UFS NAND Flash are expected to increase by around 10-15%. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, the overall upward trend in memory prices is predicted to continue.
Prices for Mobile DRAM and NAND Flash (eMMC, UFS) are expected to continue to grow, provided that companies maintain a conservative production strategy and supported by tangible consumer demand.
The memory market, emerging from a challenging phase, is not only experiencing price increases, but is also expected to gain momentum from various factors contributing to its recovery.
The increase in memory capacity in smartphones is driven by artificial intelligence
According to Wccftech reportsa significant trend in 2024 is an increase in the terminal artificial intelligence, now integrated into different chipsets like Snapdragon 8 Gen 3, Dimensity 9300 i Exynos 2400. Smartphones with artificial intelligence require more memory, with the expectation that Android phones with built-in artificial intelligence will require a minimum of 20GB of RAM.
ShutterstockWhile 8GB of RAM remains standard for Android phones, there are now phones on the market that boast larger RAM capacities than most laptops or PCs, although this has not yet become commonplace.
Industry experts suggest that to run artificial intelligence smoothly in the future, Android phones would need at least 12GB of RAM. Considering the applications of artificial intelligence and other functions, the phones will require more than 20GB of RAM for flawless operation.
The memory market expects an increase in demand for DDR5 modules
Industry experts expect significant growth in demand in the DDR5 memory market, fueled by falling prices and continued improvement in company yields.
As a high-value DRAM, DDR5 continues to attract the attention of major players. Micron's recent announcement of DDR5 memory based on 1β technology, with speeds up to 7200 MT/s, marks a move into the data and PC markets.
This year is considered to be “the year of massive adoption of DDR5.”
Recently, Micron also introduced 128GB DDR5 RDIMM memory using 32Gb chips. This series has speeds up to 8000 MT/s and is suitable for servers and workstations. Using Micron's 1β technology, this series contributes to a 24% improvement in power efficiency and a 16% reduction in latency.
Furthermore, Micron plans to launch 4800 MT/s, 5600 MT/s, and 6400 MT/s models into the memory market in 2024, with an upcoming 8000 MT/s model in the future.
As for Samsung, it is said to be expanding its production DDR5 memory. Given the high value of DDR5 and its adoption in the PC and server markets, this year is considered the “year of large DDR5 adoption.”
Similar to DDR5, HBM, High Bandwidth Memory DRAM, has attracted considerable attention this year. Driven by the trend of artificial intelligence, the demand for HBM market has increased, which has led to the expansion of HBM production capacity.
TrendForce-this research indicates that the HBM surplus is expected to improve looking towards 2024, moving from -2.4% in 2023 to 0.6%. With the AI boom driving demand for AI chips in 2023 and 2024, companies are ramping up HBM capacity, expecting significant improvement in HBM supply in 2024.
In terms of specifications, with the rise in performance needs of AI chips, it is expected that HBM3 i HBM3e become the dominant election in 2024. Overall, with demand growth and higher average selling prices of HBM3 and HBM3e compared to older versions, significant growth in companies' HBM revenue is expected in 2024.